Does Infrastructure Investment Lead to Economic Growth or Economic Fragility? Evidence from China

The prevalent view in the economics literature is that a high level of infrastructure investment is a precursor to economic growth. China is especially held up as a model to emulate. Based on the largest dataset of its kind, this paper punctures the twin myths that, first, infrastructure creates economic value, and, second, China has a distinct advantage in its delivery. Far from being an engine of economic growth, the typical infrastructure investment fails to deliver a positive risk adjusted return. Moreover, China's track record in delivering infrastructure is no better than that of rich democracies. Where investments are debt-financed, overinvesting in unproductive projects results in the buildup of debt, monetary expansion, instability in financial markets, and economic fragility, exactly as we see in China today. We conclude that poorly managed infrastructure investments are a main explanation of surfacing economic and financial problems in China. We predict that, unless China shifts to a lower level of higher-quality infrastructure investments, the country is headed for an infrastructure-led national financial and economic crisis, which is likely also to be a crisis for the international economy. China's infrastructure investment model is not one to follow for other countries but one to avoid

Should we build more large dams? The actual costs of hydropower megaproject development

A brisk building boom of hydropower mega-dams is underway from China to Brazil. Whether benefits of new dams will outweigh costs remains unresolved despite contentious debates. We investigate this question with the "outside view" or "reference class forecasting" based on literature on decision-making under uncertainty in psychology. We find overwhelming evidence that budgets are systematically biased below actual costs of large hydropower dams - excluding inflation, substantial debt servicing, environmental, and social costs. Using the largest and most reliable reference data of its kind and multilevel statistical techniques applied to large dams for the first time, we were successful in fitting parsimonious models to predict cost and schedule overruns. The outside view suggests that in most countries large hydropower dams will be too costly in absolute terms and take too long to build to deliver a positive risk-adjusted return unless suitable risk management measures outlined in this paper can be affordably provided. Policymakers, particularly in developing countries, are advised to prefer agile energy alternatives that can be built over shorter time horizons to energy megaprojects

Regression to the Tail: Why the Olympics Blow Up

The Olympic Games are the largest, highest-profile, and most expensive megaevent hosted by cities and nations. Average sports-related costs of hosting are $12.0 billion. Non-sports-related costs are typically several times that. Every Olympics since 1960 has run over budget, at an average of 172 percent in real terms, the highest overrun on record for any type of megaproject. The paper tests theoretical statistical distributions against empirical data for the costs of the Games, in order to explain the cost risks faced by host cities and nations. It is documented, for the first time, that cost and cost overrun for the Games follow a power-law distribution. Olympic costs are subject to infinite mean and variance, with dire consequences for predictability and planning. We name this phenomenon "regression to the tail": it is only a matter of time until a new extreme event occurs, with an overrun larger than the largest so far, and thus more disruptive and less plannable. The generative mechanism for the Olympic power law is identified as strong convexity prompted by six causal drivers: irreversibility, fixed deadlines, the Blank Check Syndrome, tight coupling, long planning horizons, and an Eternal Beginner Syndrome. The power law explains why the Games are so difficult to plan and manage successfully, and why cities and nations should think twice before bidding to host. Based on the power law, two heuristics are identified for better decision making on hosting. Finally, the paper develops measures for good practice in planning and managing the Games, including how to mitigate the extreme risks of the Olympic power law.Comment: arXiv admin note: text overlap with arXiv:1607.0448

Porous Graphitic Carbon for Separations of Metabolites

The analysis of the low molecular weight metabolites produced from cellular activity has a broad range of applications in systems biology. One method used to characterize these complex samples is liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry. Traditionally, reversed phase separations using n-octadecyl (C18) bonded silica stationary phases have been used for metabolite samples. Human metabolite samples contain a significant population of polar metabolites, which are not well retained on reversed phase columns. As an alternative to bonded silica, porous graphitic carbon (PGC) stationary phases have been shown to be useful for the analysis of polar and non-polar solutes. PGC offers alternative retention mechanisms combining dispersion interactions with electrostatic interactions. Experiments here explore the applicability of PGC for separations of metabolites using long packed capillary columns. When moving to capillary scale separations, it is common to use large volume injections relative to the column volume. Due to the lack of retention on C18 bonded silica, these injections will cause polar metabolites to elute as broad peaks early in the gradient. PGC offers significantly increased retention for model metabolites when compared to C18 bonded silica, and PGC also would be suitable for focusing large volume injections. When performing gradient separations with long capillary columns run times can be very long. If a solute has rapid diffusion in the stationary phase during these runs, the bands could elute as broad peaks. It was found that PGC possesses a low level of stationary phase diffusion across a range of temperature and retention conditions, allowing for sharp peaks to elute even after long gradients. Using gradient prediction models, it was found that experimental PGC gradient separations behaved as predicted based on retention data. Long capillary columns packed with PGC particles produce less efficient columns than C18 bonded silica. As the main interest in PGC was its ability to retain polar metabolites, this was not of particular concern. Application of these columns to liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry of urinary metabolites showed that PGC offered increased peak capacity, largely due to the ability to separate the metabolites over a significantly wider range of mobile phase strengthsDoctor of Philosoph

Role of Rab GTPase proteins in cell wall deposition and potential use of rabA mutants in bioenergy crops

It has long been known that fossil fuels are a finite source of energy. With this in mind research has turned to the development of renewable energy sources. One solution is the conversion of biomass to useable energy sources. These resources are located in the cell walls of currently available agronomic crops in the form of complex biopolymers, lignocelluloses, which are highly recalcitrant. In the following thesis I explore the novel mechanism of Impacting cell wall composition using mutants involved in trafficking to the cell wall. The following work shows that Rab GTPasemutants impact on cell wall deposition, with specific sub-clades impacting particular cell wall polymers. I then go on to show these mutants have significant effect on recalcitrance and thus increase saccharification of the biomass, without impacting on agronomic properties. Finally I go on to show the same impact on cell wall composition in a presumed orthogolous Rab in tomato. These findings all have significant Implications in the fields of Intracellular trafficking, cell wall biology and bioenergy

Role of Rab GTPase proteins in cell wall deposition and potential use of rabA mutants in bioenergy crops

It has long been known that fossil fuels are a finite source of energy. With this in mind research has turned to the development of renewable energy sources. One solution is the conversion of biomass to useable energy sources. These resources are located in the cell walls of currently available agronomic crops in the form of complex biopolymers, lignocelluloses, which are highly recalcitrant. In the following thesis I explore the novel mechanism of Impacting cell wall composition using mutants involved in trafficking to the cell wall. The following work shows that Rab GTPasemutants impact on cell wall deposition, with specific sub-clades impacting particular cell wall polymers. I then go on to show these mutants have significant effect on recalcitrance and thus increase saccharification of the biomass, without impacting on agronomic properties. Finally I go on to show the same impact on cell wall composition in a presumed orthogolous Rab in tomato. These findings all have significant Implications in the fields of Intracellular trafficking, cell wall biology and bioenergy

Impact of altered cell wall composition on saccharification efficiency in stem tissue of Arabidopsis RABA GTPase-deficient knockout mutants

Use of biomass for second-generation biofuel production is severely hindered by the inherent recalcitrance of the plant cell wall to digestion. Trafficking is crucial for compartmentalisation within the cell. This process is partly regulated by small Rab GTPase proteins. In particular, control of trafficking to the cell wall is regulated through the RABA clade. Manipulation of this regulatory system offers tantalising opportunities for manipulation of cell wall composition and hence recalcitrance. Trafficking-defective rabA mutants have already been shown to impact cell wall composition. To study the impacts of these mutants on cell wall digestion, we developed a saccharification process for Arabidopsis based on the hot water method. We then showed that following pre-treatment, stems from the T-DNA knockouts of the three RABA4 genes expressed in Arabidopsis stem show an increased sugar release on saccharification. These rabA4 mutants have been shown to impact the “hemicellulose-rich” fraction during cell wall fractionation. Furthermore, we go on to show that these mutant lines also show increased sugar release when subjected to saccharification without pre-treatment. Finally, we used X-ray diffraction to show that rabA4 mutants had no impact on cellulose crystallinity, thus supporting the hypothesis that the increases in saccharification were not due to alterations of the cellulose microfibrils but were a direct effect of reduced hemicellulose levels. We also present data to show that the growth characteristics of these plants were unaffected. The data obtained from these lines are most easily explained by the reported alteration in hemicellulose increasing pre-treatment efficiency